Read the Market FirstIn one year bitcoin went from $126,000 to just above $60,000 and back to $83,000. Markets move in turns like a helix, and beginners tend to jump in at the hottest turn. Read how this year unfolded first; when you open an account, sign up on OKX with code OK66688 and pay 20% less on every spot and futures fee.
From bitcoin's first $100,000 to late September 2026. At every step someone bought the top or sold the bottom. Read it through before you decide when, and with how much, to start.
After spot ETFs and the fourth halving, bitcoin crossed $100,000 for the first time and “bull run” was everywhere.
Bitcoin reached about $126,000. Many newcomers first heard they had to “get in now” around here.
A tariff shock set off a crash; about $19 billion of leveraged positions and 1.6 million accounts were wiped out in a day.
By CoinGecko's definition a bear market began here and lasted 290 days.
Bitcoin dipped to about $60,000, more than half below the peak and its lowest price since 2024.
Bitcoin closed at about $69,255 above its 200-day average; by the same definition a new up-cycle began.
Rates went up 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%. Bitcoin briefly hit about $75,700, then reclaimed $80,000.
Bitcoin sits near $83,000, about a third below the peak; the altcoin season index is 64, short of 75.
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Prices tick every second, but what decides whether you make or lose money is usually one of these three.
A 20% rise from the low is not always a bull market. Check the 200-day average, the distance to the high and whether altcoins follow. Is the bull run over?
After March 2020 prices hit new highs within a year; after FTX they took over a year to recover. Crypto black swan events
1 USDT is not always 7 yuan, and the P2P premium says something about the mood. When you sell, know where the money comes from. 1 USDT to CNY
Nobody can predict tomorrow's price, but these public numbers tell you which step of the cycle you are on. Data as of late September 2026.
| Indicator | Now | What it suggests | Where to check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | About $83,000 | Below last year, above the 2026 low | OKX app markets page |
| Distance to the high | About -34% | Still under the October 2025 peak | OKX app markets page |
| 200-day average | Above it since Aug 20 | Out of the bear market by the usual definition | Add MA200 to the chart |
| Altcoin season index | 64 (line is 75) | A few big coins beat bitcoin; not altseason yet | Altcoin season index |
| Bitcoin dominance | About 58.6% | Money still sits mostly in bitcoin | “Dominance” on market sites |
| 1 USDT | About 6.71 yuan | The yuan strengthened, so USDT's yuan price fell | USDT to CNY |
Information as of 2026-09-29. Outside news links to its source. For reference only, not investment advice.
That is about a third below the ~$126,000 peak of October 2025 and roughly 5% lower for 2026 so far. Pullbacks bring in new buyers; only use spare money and buy in parts.
FortuneBy CoinGecko's definition that ended a 290-day bear market and started a new up-cycle, but the rally was only about 17% old by Sept 21.
Is the bull run over?Up from 48 in late September but still below the 75 line for altcoin season. Bitcoin dominance is still around 58%, so money is going to a few large coins only.
What is altcoin season?On Sept 16 the Fed lifted rates by 25 bp to 3.75%–4.00%. Bitcoin briefly fell to about $75,700 before reclaiming $80,000.
Tencent NewsOn Oct 10–11, 2025 about $19 billion of leveraged positions were wiped out in a day and more than 1.6 million accounts were liquidated. Bitcoin has not made a new high since.
Crypto black swan eventsThe yuan has strengthened, so USDT's yuan price has slipped from above 7.1 a year ago to around 6.7. P2P quotes add a small premium or discount on top.
USDT to CNY explainedWhether the bull run is real, what altcoin season means, the big crashes of the past, bitcoin's price by year, what 1 USDT is worth in yuan, and how price manipulation works.
Signs of a bull market, how long bull runs last, which years were bull years, and where 2026 stands, with an 8-signal check.
Trending · Altcoin season index todayHow the altcoin season index works, where it is now, when altseason comes, how long it lasts and why altcoins lag bitcoin.
Crashes · What is a crypto black swanMarch 2020, May 2021, LUNA, FTX and the October 10, 2025 liquidation night: how far prices fell and what happened next.
Market · Bitcoin all-time highWhat bitcoin cost in the early days, its all-time high, how much it rose in ten years, and why it goes up and down.
Money · USDT to RMB rate todayToday's USDT to yuan rate, whether USDT equals USD, what the P2P premium means, the legal position in China and dirty-money risk.
Scams · Pump and dump cryptoWho can move prices, how pump-and-dumps work, the tricks used on new traders and when calling the police helps.
Down, then up. Bitcoin peaked near $126,000 in October 2025, fell to about $60,000 in February 2026, moved back above its 200-day average on Aug 20 and traded near $83,000 in late September.
Nobody can say for sure. ETF money is still flowing, the Fed has just raised rates and the altcoin season index is at 64. Decide how much spare money you can use, and in how many parts, before guessing the direction.
Trading volume, ETF flows and new users say no. Individual coins can still go to zero and projects can still vanish; the people who get hurt most are usually those who chased highs with leverage.
By the “30 days above the 200-day average” definition a new up-cycle started on Aug 20, 2026. But bitcoin is still more than 30% below its high and most altcoins have not followed, so it looks more like a recovery than a full bull run.
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Start with three things: bitcoin's price and distance from its all-time high, whether it is above the 200-day average, and the altcoin season index with bitcoin dominance. News is easier to judge after that.
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