Is the crypto bull run over?
Check eight signals.
Bitcoin climbed from $69,000 back to $83,000 and “bull run” is trending again. Yet people who bought at $120,000 a year ago are still under water. Here is how to judge a bull market, how long they usually last, and whether 2026 counts.
What does “bull run” mean?
A bull market is a stretch of rising prices, winning trades and growing excitement; the opposite is a bear market. In crypto, “the bull run is here” usually means bitcoin leads the way up and ether and other coins follow.
There is no official definition. Three common yardsticks:
- Moving average: bitcoin above its 200-day average for 30+ days is a bull market; below it for 30+ days is a bear market. CoinGecko's bull-run study uses this.
- Percentage: 20% up from the low is a bull market in stocks, but in crypto 20% is often just a bounce.
- Mood: newcomers flooding in and exchange apps topping the charts usually means you are already in the later stage.
The three often disagree, so there is no one-line answer. Look at several signals together.
Is the 2026 bull run starting or already over?
| Date | What happened | Bitcoin, approx. |
|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-06 | All-time high | $126,000 |
| 2025-11-04 | Falls below the 200-day average; bear market begins | About $100,000 |
| 2026-02-06 | Bear-market low | About $60,000 |
| 2026-08-20 | Back above the 200-day average; bear market ends after 290 days | $69,255 |
| 2026-09-16 | Fed raises rates by 25 bp | Briefly $75,700 |
| 2026-09-28 | Now | About $83,000 |
Strictly speaking, a new up-cycle began on Aug 20, 2026 (CoinGecko bull-run study). But by Sept 21 it was only about 17% old, bitcoin was still more than 30% below its high and most altcoins had not followed. It looks more like a recovery than a 2021-style bull run.
People asking “is the bull run over” usually treat October 2025 as the top. By the moving-average definition that bull market did end in November 2025; what we have now is the start of a new one, and nobody knows how far it goes.
Signs of a crypto bull market: an eight-signal check
You can find most of these signals in a market app or on public websites. Open a chart and tick them off:
0/ 8
Bear market or very early
Most bull signals are missing. Cold markets are a good time to learn, open an account and start small.
Open a market app and tick each signal you can see; tap again to untick. The result only hints at which stage the market is in and is not trading advice. Your ticks stay in your own browser.
More signals mean a hotter market, and also fewer cheap entry points left. When all eight lit up in the past, a cycle top was often not far away.
How long do crypto bull markets last?
CoinGecko looked at every bitcoin bull run since 2014 using the moving-average definition:
- They lasted 237 days on average, or about 169 days if you drop the 849-day 2015–2018 outlier.
- Start-to-peak gains averaged 130.5%, ranging from 10.8% (early 2020) to 627% (2020–2021).
- Recent cycles have delivered smaller gains, and the authors warn against treating the average as a target.
Applying the average to the Aug 20 start of about $69,255 gives numbers above $150,000, but that is arithmetic, not a forecast (CoinGecko bull-run study). Bull markets don't go straight up: 20%–30% pullbacks are normal, and they are where many leveraged traders get wiped out.
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Which years were crypto bull markets?
| Years | From → to | What drove it |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 | About $13 → about $1,150 | Bitcoin's first mainstream moment, Mt. Gox era |
| 2017 | About $1,000 → about $19,700 | The ICO boom |
| 2020–2021 | About $3,800 → about $69,000 | DeFi, NFTs, Dogecoin, first corporate buyers |
| 2023–2025 | About $15,500 → about $126,000 | Spot ETFs, the fourth halving, corporate treasuries |
Each big run was followed by a 70%–85% crash (2018, 2022). The fall that began in late 2025 bottomed at about -52% in February 2026, shallower than before. Some call this the four-year cycle; others think ETFs have changed it.
For year-by-year prices, see bitcoin price history by year.
Three mistakes beginners make in a bull market
- Buying for the first time at the hottest moment. People who opened accounts near $120,000 in October 2025 were still down about 30% a year later. Open an account, learn, and buy in small parts instead of waiting for “confirmation”.
- Opening futures because others doubled their money. Pullbacks in bull markets are brutal: on Oct 10–11, 2025 over 1.6 million accounts were liquidated, most of them long.
- Switching to tiny coins because bitcoin feels expensive. If altcoin season never comes, obscure coins just keep falling.
A bull market does not make everyone money. Those still around for the next one usually used spare money, never borrowed and avoided high leverage.
Bull run
FAQ.
01Is the crypto bull run over?
The previous one ended in November 2025. By the 200-day-average definition a new up-cycle began on Aug 20, 2026, but bitcoin is still over 30% below its high.
02What are the signs of a crypto bull market?
Bitcoin holding above its 200-day average, nearing its high, an altcoin season index above 75, steady ETF inflows, positive funding rates, a greedy fear and greed index, a rush of newcomers and exchange apps topping the charts.
03How long do crypto bull markets last?
About 237 days on average since 2014, or about 169 days without one outlier, usually with 20%–30% pullbacks along the way.
04When does the next bull run start?
Usually after a bear market bottoms and bitcoin moves back above its 200-day average. By that measure the current one started on Aug 20, 2026.
05Which years were crypto bull markets?
2013, 2017, 2020–2021 and 2023–2025 are the widely recognised ones.
06Is it a bull market now?
By the moving-average definition, yes, since Aug 20, 2026. By price and altcoin breadth it still looks like an early recovery.
07What should beginners buy in a bull market?
We don't recommend coins. Beginners usually start small with bitcoin or ether, skip leverage and avoid chasing tiny coins.
08Is it too late to sign up once the bull run starts?
No, sign-up takes minutes. But the code only works at sign-up, so register with OK66688 first and every trade after that costs 20% less in fees.
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